Intro

Week 1 of College Football’s 2025-26 season did not go the way the Texas Longhorns anticipated.

Texas came into the matchup with a #1 preseason ranking and a ton of hype. Ohio State is the defending National Champion with a #3 preseason ranking and a large portion of the CFB world was still calling a Longhorn win. And then there were all of the expectations placed on Heisman hopeful Arch Manning as he was slated to take full control of the Texas offense.

Big Picture

Despite all of that, the Longhorns suffered a 7-14 loss in front of an estimated 107,524 fans up in Columbus, Ohio. From early on in the game, it was apparent that the preseason hype was just a smidge overblown. Especially when it came to Texas’ quarterback situation. So let’s put things in some historical context to see how much the Longhorn fanbase should be hurting.

Historical Context - Overall

The Longhorns’ last season in the Southwest Conference was 1995. They played their first season of Big 12 football in 1996 and that conference run lasted for 28 seasons before they joined the SEC in the 2024 season. This will be their second season opener played in the South’s most competitive CFB conference.

Between 1996 and 2024, the Texas Longhorns had a season opener record of 25-4. A little bit on the opponents during those four losses, prior to this season.

1999: North Carolina State
2015: Notre Dame
2017: Maryland
2018: Maryland

Historical Context – Points Scored

The average points scored by the programs in openers for the entire period was 44.06, with the average being 47.4 for wins and 23.25 in losses.

Texas was well below its overall average of 44.06 points scored per season opener this year. The team’s seven points scored against Ohio State was also well below its average in losses, 23.25. It wasn’t rock bottom, though. That title belongs to their 2015 loss to Notre Dame when the Longhorns only scored three points.

Historical Context – Point Differential

The average point differential during the time period was +28.82, which translates to +35.56 in the wins and -13.25 in the losses.

From this angle, it wasn’t as bad of a day for Texas. They were above the -13.25 average in losses between 1996 and 2024, with a differential of -7. The biggest outlier during the time period was a -35 differential in 2015 against Notre Dame.

Historical Context – Pass Completions

The Longhorns averaged 19.96 pass completions per season opener between 1996 and 2024. The average in their wins was 19.44 and 23.25 in their losses.

Looking from a total completions perspective, the 2025 season opener loss was the second worst outing in recent history. They had 17 completions against Ohio State, compared with an average of 23.25 for all losses and 8 completions in the 2015 loss.

Historical Context – Pass Attempts

Texas averaged 31.27 pass attempts per season opener between 1996 and 2024. The average in their wins was 29.84 and a much higher 40.25 in their losses.

Looking from a total attempts perspective, the 2025 season opener loss was the second worst outing in recent history. They had 30 attempts against Ohio State, compared with an average of 40.25 for all losses and 23 attempts in the 2015 loss.

Historical Context – Pass Accuracy

Between 1996 and 2024, Texas passers completed an average of 63.8% of their passes in season openers. That translates to 65.1% in the wins and 57.7% in the losses.

The Longhorns have seen much worse times in their recent season openers in terms of passing accuracy, when compared with their performance against the Buckeyes. Arch Manning completed 56.7% of his passes, compared with the aggregated 57.5% completion rate for the four losses between 1996 and 2024. The program’s completion rate in the 2018 loss was 53.8% and the rate was 34.8% in the 2015 loss.

Historical Context – Passing Yards

Texas passed for an average of 259.2 yards per season opener between 1996 and 2024. The average in the wins was 258.4 and the average in the losses was 264.25.

Looking from a total passing yardage perspective, the 2025 season opener loss was the second worst outing in recent history. They had 170 passing yards against Ohio State, compared with an average of 264.25 for all losses and 103 passing yards in the 2015 loss.

Historical Context – Quarterback Rating (QBR)

Final Thoughts

It’s definitely not how the South, the SEC, Texas or Arch Manning wanted to get 2025-26 started but there’s a lot of football left to be played. And maybe things will get better now that the external expectations will undoubtedly drop off.

CFB South: Texas’ Week 1 Loss