College Football's Too Big Too Fail: Top Cluster
Context
There are several ways to come up with a definition of “Too Big Too Fail” (TBTF) for College Football programs. The big question for this analysis: If we think of modern' college football program’s main purpose as being the provision of talent for the NFL, which ones can’t we afford to go under during the Realignment Wars?
The full dataset included 5,128 NFL Draft picks that were selected between the 2005 and 2024 seasons. From there, the analysis hones in at the program level to identify the most prolific CFB programs.
Big Picture
The full analysis identified six clusters. Cluster 6 includes the 24 College Football programs who the NFL wouldn’t be able to operate without, from a talent perspective.
The 24 programs produced 2,186 total picks, representing 42.6% of all picks in the analysis set.
Conference Summary
It’ll come as no surprise that the SEC dominates the final TBTF list. Programs from down South contributed 41.3% (903) of the group’s total picks. The Big Ten occupied the second spot with 32.9% (719) of the TBTF picks. Programs from the ACC had 21.8% (477) picks. And there was a lone Independent (the ACC-adjacent Notre Dame) that accounted for 4% (87) of the group’s picks.
SEC
Nine SEC programs contributed 903 NFL Draft picks between 2005 and 2024. In terms of conference representation, 56.3% of the SEC’s total programs earned the “Too Big Too Fail” tag.
Big Ten
Eight Big Ten programs contributed 719 NFL Draft picks between 2005 and 2024. In terms of conference representation, 44.4% of the Big Ten’s total programs earned the “Too Big Too Fail” tag.
ACC
Six ACC programs contributed 477 NFL Draft picks between 2005 and 2024. In terms of conference representation, 35.3% of the ACC’s total programs earned the “Too Big Too Fail” tag.
Florida St.: 96 picks
Clemson: 96 picks
Miami (FL): 91 picks
Stanford: 69 picks
Virginia Tech: 63 picks
North Carolina: 62 picks
Independent (ACC-Adjacent)
Notre Dame contributed 87 NFL Draft picks between 2005 and 2024.
NFL Productivity Context
All of the programs in the TBTF analysis’ Cluster 6 had 80 or more Draft picks but there were still levels of productivity on the big NFL stage.
Group 2B - Most Prolific
Total Picks: 534
No shockers here. In addition to being hotbed for high-level professional talent, these four programs claimed 12 of the 20 CFB national champion slots between 2005 and 2024.
Alabama: 19 All Pro selections, 83 Pro Bowl selections, 366 seasons as Primary Starter
LSU: 14 All Pro selections, 68 Pro Bowl selections, 326 seasons as Primary Starter
Ohio St.: 11 All Pro selections, 66 Pro Bowl selections, 298 seasons as Primary Starter
Georgia: 11 All Pro selections, 46 Pro Bowl selections, 236 seasons as Primary Starter
Group 2A
Total Picks: 428
This group has an even SEC-Big Ten split. Picks from Oklahoma had the best collective NFL resume and USC had the second best even though the Trojans logged more picks. Florida and Michigan were what-and-what in all categories.
USC: 9 All Pro selections, 44 Pro Bowl selections, 257 seasons as Primary Starter
Oklahoma: 16 All Pro selections, 64 Pro Bowl selections, 219 seasons as Primary Starter
Florida: 2 All Pro selections, 27 Pro Bowl selections, 198 seasons as Primary Starter
Michigan: 1 All Pro selection, 16 Pro Bowl selections, 160 seasons as Primary Starter
Group 1C
Total Picks: 460
ACC and ACC-adjacent programs reigned supreme in this group. Penn St. (Big Ten) was the only non-ACC program included. And despite the recent letdowns from Florida St., Clemson and Miami (FL), I don’t think there’s any argument that their ability to turn out NFL talent is still strong.
Florida St.: 7 All Pro selections, 37 Pro Bowl selections, 196 seasons as Primary Starter
Clemson: 4 All Pro selections, 18 Pro Bowl selections, 152 seasons as Primary Starter
Miami (FL): 7 All Pro selections, 37 Pro Bowl selections, 183 seasons as Primary Starter
Penn St.: 8 All Pro selections, 23 Pro Bowl selections, 156 seasons as Primary Starter
Notre Dame: 14 All Pro selections, 36 Pro Bowl selections, 178 seasons as Primary Starter
Group 1B
Total Picks: 377
Big Ten and SEC programs made up most of this group. Wisconsin picks had the strongest collective professional resume. Texas, Oregon and Iowa were situated similarly in this regard. Auburn’s 77 picks put them close to the top of the list but the professional resumes leave a bit to be desired.
Texas: 8 All Pro selections, 31 Pro Bowl selections, 188 seasons as Primary Starter
Auburn: 3 All Pro selections, 15 Pro Bowl selections, 137 seasons as Primary Starter
Wisconsin: 19 All Pro selections, 49 Pro Bowl selections, 165 seasons as Primary Starter
Oregon: 6 All Pro selections, 29 Pro Bowl selections, 140 seasons as Primary Starter
Iowa: 8 All Pro selections, 32 Pro Bowl selections, 177 seasons as Primary Starter
Group 1A
Total Picks: 387
Longstanding ACC members, Virginia Tech and North Carolina, joined newcomer Stanford in this group. Stanford picks’ collective professional resumes were also the strongest among the whole group. The SEC’s South Carolina and Texas A&M aren’t surprises but I’m pretty sure new Big Ten member UCLA earning the Too Big Too Fail title will shock some.
Stanford: 8 All Pro selections, 27 Pro Bowl selections, 132 seasons as Primary Starter
UCLA: 4 All Pro selections, 23 Pro Bowl selections, 99 seasons as Primary Starter
South Carolina: 4 All Pro selections, 20 Pro Bowl selections, 114 seasons as Primary Starter
Virginia Tech: 2 All Pro selections, 18 Pro Bowl selections, 111 seasons as Primary Starter
Texas A&M: 7 All Pro selections, 27 Pro Bowl selections, 128 seasons as Primary Starter
North Carolina: 1 All Pro selections, 7 Pro Bowl selections, 90 seasons as Primary Starter
